Jobs, Tariffs, Christmas Gifts, Bowls, Used Slippers and a Thought for the Season
Jobs
Now that’s a bounce back.
It looks like an impact was made by Boeing workers getting back on the job, and the ones in the Carolinas and Florida that were temporarily laid off from the storms got back on the job.
227,000 new jobs were added in November. October’s was 36,000.
And unemployment went back up a hair to 4.2% from 4.1%.
The ADP jobs report showed 146,000 new jobs compared to 184,000 the month before.
Almost half were added in the south. It’s because that’s where the growth is.
Job openings increased from 7,400,000 to 7,700,000.
Hourly wages were up 4% year over year, so odds are your paycheck is keeping ahead of inflation.
Consumer sentiment continued to improve. This does two things: it shows confidence in the job market, and when you feel better, you spend a little more freely.
Next week, the consumer price index is released, and expectations are for the core CPI to drop to 3.2% from 3.3%.
Fingers crossed!
More trivia…
L.A. County has 4,620,000 workers with unemployment at 6%
Orange County has 1,720,000 workers and unemployment at 4.1%
The Inland Empire also has 1,720,000 workers, but that’s really two counties. Unemployment is at 5.5%.
Tariffs
In the June 16 Report, I discussed tariffs and why they happen. Before the summer, the current administration had just imposed tariffs on Chinese solar cells at 50%, steel and aluminum products at 25%, and computer chips at 50% by 2025. Medical products and critical minerals were also impacted.
After the election, it has become a buzzword again. This time, it is for a different reason: the next administration has suggested that tariffs will be increasing.
Retailers are using the word to impel shoppers to do their shopping now before prices go up.
“Pre-tariff sale! This is not a drill!” urging customers to order now before prices double.
“Lock in your current prices” before tariffs push them higher.
Marketing will never waste an opportunity to get eyes on their product and cash in the till.
Speaking of sales…
The dollar amount of gifts given will reach a record high this year.
Given inflation over the last three years, it should be a record high.
Consumers plan to spend an average of $677 on gifts, up 3.4% from last year.
Those 35-44 years old plan to spend $682, up from $590 last year.
Those over 65? $211 vs. 204. Evidently, Grandpa has a Velcro wallet, which screams every time he opens it.
What, you think money grows on trees??!! I’m on a fixed income, you know! Get off my lawn!
You’ll find Grandpa in front of the TV starting December 14 – see the next section.
When is a Bowl not a bowl?
When it is a college football Bowl.
For those not inclined to college football, bear with me. You’ll have unique facts to throw at your football fan acquaintances.
Not including the four first-round playoff games and the championship game, there are 42 bowl games starting December 14.
Which bowl games are real, and which are not?
Tony the Tiger Bowl
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Bad Boys Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
The EverKrisp Vegetable Bowl
Not really clear, is it? The first four are real, the last one is not.
Just something else for your holiday mixer banter.
Regifting Slippers
Not a bad idea, you may think, but not this pair.
This pair of slippers was expected to go at auction for about $3,000,000, with the starting bid set at $1,500,000.
The bidding eclipsed both numbers in the first minute.
The final number? $32,500,000. Wow.
The slippers? A pair of ruby red slippers worn by Judy Garland in the Wizard of Oz.
That is some serious residual cash flow.
Speaking of Christmas…
4.1% is still a tight unemployment number, but it’s much better than 3.5%.
I say that because the owner of the local Christmas tree lot was able to hire 30 seasonal employees, most of whom were sourced from the local high school.
You may recall a few years back, you couldn’t even get people to apply for a job.
And speaking of Christmas trees, an 8-foot Noble is $136 in Upland, California.
Back east, there is a shortage of trees due to weather issues throughout this past year. The lot owner told me that a woman from Maine came by his lot to buy a tree and was pleased by the price. Evidently, in Maine, the same tree is $300. And no, she is not shipping it back there!
A Thought for the Season
From A Gentleman in Moscow by Amor Towles: “…just remember that unlike adults, children want to be happy. So they still have the ability to take the greatest pleasure in the simplest things.”
And that is one of the beauties of the Christmas season; it can bring out the child in us if you let it.
16 more shopping days until Christmas.
