CPI, Small Business Optimism, Rate Cuts, Visa, California Labor Law Update, and Who Was Alton Thacker?
What Happened Last Week? A lot, but let's focus on two things: small business optimism and inflation.
The National Federation of Independent Business, the NFIB, released its November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. It measures what small businesses think of ten different components. In November, it came in at 101.7, the highest rating since June 2021.
Of the 10 components, 9 increased and 1 stayed the same.
The average for the last 50 years has been 98.
For business owners, the elections in November certainly had an impact.
Not everything was peaches and cream, though.
Of the 55% of business owners wanting to hire, 87% of them reported few or no qualifying applicants to fill the positions they were trying to fill. Still??!!
The CPI – consumer price index – crept up a teensy-weensy bit, from 2.6% the prior month to 2.7% this month.
Core CPI – no food or fuel costs included in core – stayed the same at 3.3%
Core would not include the price of eggs, but the regular CPI would.
Not that I’m pointing out that eggs have increased 38% in a year, but the bird flu will do that to a flock of chickens.
Two things this week: the Personal Consumption Expenditure index will be reported on Friday. More importantly, the Federal Open Market Committee – the Fed - gets together for the December soiree and decrees what rates shall do.
Since the PCE comes out after the Fed meeting, it really is irrelevant but could be the “I told you so” moment.
Regarding a rate cut, the CME Group, a group that operates financial derivative exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange out of Chicago, has an opinion.
That’s like the casinos in Vegas setting the odds by seeing how everyone is betting. But I digress again.
At any rate, the CME Group states there is a 97.1% chance of a rate cut.
And yes, the stock market has already baked that into its cake.
What’s in Your Wallet?
Probably a Visa card.
For whatever reason, I was perusing Visa Inc.'s September 30, 2024 annual report when I noticed some numbers that stood out.
Total dollars transacted? $15,700,000,000,000.
If you got tired of counting the zeroes, it’s $15.7 trillion.
Number of transactions? 233,800,000,000.
Visa Inc. Net Revenue: $35,926,000,000
Visa Inc. Net Income: $19,743,000,000
Yep. That’s a 54% net profit margin.
Something to mention in the last of your holiday parties this week.
Legal Update
Every year, the law firm of Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo – or AALRR, for short – puts on an annual breakfast at several locations around the southland. They also put on an all-day legal conference, but that’s another topic for another day.
You should get on their email list.
This past week, they went over many changes, but there are a couple that I have picked to make sure you change your documentation appropriately. For folks out of state, please go to the next topic.
Assembly Bill 1880 states that in the event of a workplace injury, the notice given to workers must state that they have the right to consult an attorney for advice on worker’s compensation law and that the attorney’s fees may be paid as part of an injured worker’s award.
California Senate Bill 988 states that any work done by a freelance worker for professional work (that would be white-collar work) and over $250 must have a written contract with many stipulations; no more oral agreements.
And you cannot deviate from the contract.
The next thing you know, the state will demand you withhold taxes because you wouldn’t want that freelancer feeling like an employee, would you?
Who was Alton Thacker?
He was a barber, but it was his woodworking hobby that generated his legacy.
He was born in 1935, the youngest of 14 children.
WARNING: DIGRESSION AHEAD! I have heard folks say that this is not a good time to have children, and yet, in the middle of the Great Depression, this family had 14.
He grew up on the family homestead in Altamont, Utah.
He married Cheryl Kay Remington when they were both 17, and he worked various jobs before starting Al’s Style Shop in Orem, Utah.
On a mission trip with their church that brought the gift of better sight via eyeglasses to Colonia Juarez, Mexico, they both had a transformative experience with a little girl who was so happy she could finally see everything.
They returned every Christmas afterward with numerous volunteers bringing all sorts of items and helping build hospital rooms. And they brought toys.
“There’s nothing more rewarding than the reaction you get from handing a toy to a destitute child,” Thacker told People magazine in 2017. “It’s addicting.”
Alton often grew out his white beard and wore a Santa hat during the Christmas events later in his life.
So they started Tiny Tim’s Foundation for Kids in 1996 to hand out toys for children. Their toy of choice? A little wooden car they started making in their garage.
The first year, they made 400 cars at a cost of about $2 each. They went down to Mexico and gave them away. Of course, word got out. Any idea how many they make each year now?
125,000.
Every month, about 1000 people go to Tiny Tim’s workshop to help build these toy cars: senior citizens, Boy Scouts, church groups, and families. Even inmates work on the cars at the Central Utah Correctional Facility close by.
Thacker would say “I don’t know who gets more out of it: the people who make the cars or the people who receive them.”
After giving out over 1,700,000 little toy cars, Alton Thacker died last month at the age of 89.
Now that’s a legacy. And a perfect Christmas story.
Christmas is next week….
