Two weeks later: CPI, Fed Funds Rate, an Election, the Pink Slip, Gummies, Your Wallet and Out-of-Office
Well, it’s been two weeks…
And it’s been eventful, with all sorts of news that impact your money and your business.
Let’s start with the big news…
The Fed lowered its funding rate for the second time this year.
They dropped it by 0.25%, causing the prime rate to fall to 7.75%.
If you borrow, this is good news and will impact you immediately.
Just a couple of months ago, the prime rate was 8.5%.
The Consumer Price Index, the CPI, a key measure of inflation, went up.
Yep, up.
The funny part was that it was expected to. Last month’s annual CPI was 2.4%. It was expected to increase to 2.6%, and it did not disappoint.
The good news is that the core CPI, the part with energy and food costs taken out, stayed the same.
Some folks think this will lead to another rate cut on December 18.
Finally, there is something called the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Not surprisingly, it tracks manufacturing activity in the New York region.
It smoked in November.
Good smoke, not bad smoke.
The index for new orders increased to 28 last month from 0 the month before. Anything above 0 is positive, while numbers less than 0 are negative.
Thank you, Captain Obvious.
This bodes well, particularly since this was the highest level in 3 years.
Oh, and yes, there was an election.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average – the average of the top 30 stocks in the New York Stock Exchange, aka NYSE, and the Standard & Poors 500 stock index were both up. Pretty instantaneously.
The DJI was up 3.5% in a day and 2.9% since the election.
The S&P was up 2.5% in a day and 1.5% since the election.
It’s not a forecast, folks, it’s just a reaction, but it’s a nice bump to your 401k.
While You Were Out
Remember those pink slips of paper the receptionist gave you from the notepad when you came back to the office after lunch? Yeah, most people don’t. I digress, but you can google it though.
While everyone is focused on the election, stocks, inflation, gold, and jobs, guess who snuck in the back door?
Bitcoin
Bitcoin recently closed at $90,000 for a single Bitcoin. Whatever that is. You can’t even hold the darn thing.
During all the inflation hype and the raising of interest rates, it had dropped to $16,500 at the end of 2022.
This is not an endorsement of this electronic asset, so don’t even think it is.
I just thought it was worth mentioning.
Nerds. Gummy Clusters, that is, not the guys in your IT department.
Am I the only one who has never heard of Gummy Clusters? Probably, but that’s not the point.
Six years ago, all Nerds candy had $40,000,000 in sales, which is more than I certainly thought they should.
It’s a 40-year-old candy brand.
This year, Nerds Gummy Clusters has already done $500,000,000 on its own.
That’s 90% of all Nerds revenue.
Ferrera Candy bought The Nerds brand in 2018. Then someone thought of Gummy Clusters.
The research said it would be a dud, but they did it anyway.
Then they hit it big…
Kylie Jenner posted on the ‘Gram that Nerds Gummy clusters were “next level.”
She has 200,000,000 followers, and predictably, Ferrera had to increase production 350% to keep up with demand.
What’s in Your Wallet?
Capital One says its borrowers are doing just fine, thank you.
The CEO: “Consumers, on the whole, are in good shape compared to most historical benchmarks.”
And they would know.
While some charge-offs are above pre-pandemic figures, they feel that this is because those same consumers were already on the edge and the inevitable was postponed due to the covid stimulus.
Overall, this idea seems to be shared among other consumer debt companies.
Capital One cited an improved credit outlook and confidence in the stability of current trends.
The Out-of-Office Email
It’s that time of the year, folks. How will you tell your prospects and clients that you won’t be able to respond to them in 30 milliseconds every time they email you while you are ‘out of office’?
Let’s start with the basics.
Every week, I get anywhere from 8 to 30 out-of-office replies, so I see a LOT of OoO bounce backs, so I think I can speak from some level of expertise.
The best OoO emails contain the following:
An alternative contact with a phone number that actually knows they are the backup contact.
An expected return date.
A ‘thank you’ for sending the email.
What NOT to have in your OoO email:
Refer the sender to an info@ or a generic phone number.
Your OoO from your summer vacation.
Do not have “I am out of the office. Please get in touch with our customer service department in Minneapolis for any outstanding issues.”
This is just inviting your customer to call your competitor.
Between the stock market, the manufacturer’s index, Q3 GDP, and the Capital One report, things are looking OK for 2025. Are you trying new things in your business, like the Nerds folks? Are you focused on customer perceptions, like your Out of Office messages? Keep focused on your customers, and don’t be afraid to fail. As Truman Capote said:
Failure is the condiment that gives success its flavor.
Heading into December…
