The Abbreviated 4th of July Version
If you are reading this, well, you were on the lower part of the vacation schedule and didn’t get today off. Conversely, you might know that you’re not going to get a lot of phone calls from customers today, either, so it’s a good day for admin work. However, @paulcastain would say, if you’re doing admin work, you’re not selling.
Well, I don’t know if he really said that, but I have been following him for 10 years, so I’m pretty sure he would say that.
So, let’s keep it brief.
Durable goods orders were higher than expected.
New home sales – higher than expectations.
Big news: GDP for the second quarter was adjusted higher.
From 1.6% to 2.0%.
We are starting the third quarter pretty well, it appears.
It’s going to take more than a doubling of rates by the Fed to make an impact.
Speaking of rates, the Prime Rate is at 8.25%
It was at 3.25% a mere 15 months ago. Two more rate increases, and you are at 8.75%.
That’s so 2001, like Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, and Monsters, Inc. Yes, they are that old.
And, of course, 9/11. Never forget.
Initial jobless claims were lower than expected.
And the pièce de résistance… The PCE index – yes, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index – rose just 0.1%.
The month before it was 0.4%
The Core PCE – remember, it’s without the fuel and food items – went up 0.3%, but that was down from 0.4%.
So, the economy is pretty strong, inflation is slowing, and consumer optimism is still ok.
But housing starts for the first part of this year are far lower than 2022 figures, from 1.8 million to 1.3 million annualized. It did pop back up to 1.6 million this past May, so we’ll see if that sticks.
And housing starts are a leading economic indicator for a recession. Oops.
Lots to talk about at your fireworks show tomorrow! Yeah, inflation is not at 2%, but it is down to 3.8%, which beats the heck out of last June’s 9%.
The Stock Market – also known as your IRA or 401k.
Yep, the S&P index gained 16% in just the first half of the year.
The Dow Jones was up 3.8%.
That helps with consumer optimism. Their retirement balances are up.
It’s all about Attitude – Bad Attitude, Bad Results. Good attitude, better results.
Well, everyone feels good this weekend, except some politicians. They just don’t seem to feel good about anything.
Case in point. An assemblyman in California had the following quote:
“If we’re not serious now about the existential questions, we never will be…. I have a four-year-old daughter. Will she live to be 25? I don’t know. The way the planet is trending I’m not sure. Will we have democracy in this country in two, three years? I don’t know. That is a question that is unanswered. Will California be part of a 50-state transcontinental country in two years? I don’t know.”
Folks, this is a problem, not just with some politicians, but with some managers. Do not hire someone with that kind of sour outlook.
And the guy is from southern California. If he was in San Francisco, I get it, but he’s not.
Can you imagine being this guy’s daughter?
“Hey honey, happy birthday. I just don’t think you’re going to make it in the next 20 years, so I’m cashing out your college savings. Have a wonderful day!”
By the way, if this is you, get off social media, put down your phone, and go on a hike with your kid.
The 56 signers of the Declaration of Independence had the right attitude. They KNEW what they were doing transcended anything that had been done before. They also knew that just putting their name on the document made them a target for King George. And many died for it.
Their vision certainly went past the 2 to 3 years of idiot politicians.
I encourage you to watch the 8-episode show, John Adams, on HBO. You will learn a lot about how this country was born. Or, you can go down the Wikipedia hole and start with Thomas Jefferson, then John Adams and George Washington. Fascinating stuff.
Have a wonderful 4th!!
