More mixer material, consumer credit, workplace demographics, The Panama Canal and the 4th quarter.
Mixer Update
At your next mixer, the theme is volatility. Can we get a pattern here, please?
Wholesale Inventories fell 0.2% because of an increase in consumer spending, reversing the decrease in spending in June.
Initial jobless claims were at their lowest point since February: 216,000 newly unemployed folks.
The good news is that there are 8.6 million jobs out there.
The bad news is that they are competing with 1.7 million other unemployed people.
SoFi (an FDIC insured Fintech) is offering a 4.5% savings account rate – just thought I’d throw that in there.
Just keep it at $250,000 or less.
Some interesting numbers on consumer credit
The credit card delinquency rate is up to 3.8%, the highest since 2011
Auto loan delinquency is at 3.6%, the highest since 2010.
Those dates are ringing a bell… oh, yes… The Great Recession.
Is this a repetition? Absolutely not. There is even talk of no recession; if there is one, it’s not happening this year.
But I think you should make it part of your thinking for 2024, though.
The average credit card interest rate is at a record high: 20.6%.
If you owe $5000, your interest payment is $1,030 for the year.
Along the same line, the latest survey of senior loan officers found that more than a quarter of banks plan to continue to toughen up their lending standards for credit cards this year.
Money is starting to get tight…
Workplace Demographics, Part Deux.
Last week, there was an error in my report. Well, at least only one that we are aware of.
I incorrectly reported the percentages of generations in the workplace. Here are the correct percentages from youngest to oldest:
Gen Z’ers: 22.8 million; 13.6%
Millennials (Gen Y’ers): 73.8 million; 43.9%
Gen X’ers: 32.8 million; 19.5%
Boomers: 36.6 million; 21.8%
Greatest: 1.9 million; 1.1%
Pretty impressive that there are 1.9 million folks over 75 still working.
Disclaimer:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics do not break out age groups by generation, so ultimately, you are either adding or subtracting up to 3 years of each group.
For that reason, the X’ers and Boomers are really in a dead heat as of August 2023.
But the percentages add up to 100.
Keep in mind that these are their percentages as participants in the workforce, not a percentage of the population. The workforce participation rate is running 62.8% overall.
It peaked in January 2007 at 66.4%.
Men are at 70.5%
Women are at 59.0%
Highest category or participation goes to… Hispanics at 67.1%
The Panama Canal
Who knew that Central America is in a drought? That’s question one.
Question two is: Who knew that the Panama Canal is mostly fresh water?
I never really gave it any thought
Keep in mind that China has given it a lot of thought and has worked hard to increase its influence in Panama.
But that’s what they do with many countries around the world.
Just google “China and Africa relations”.
Because of said drought, it takes longer to fill the locks at the Panama Canal, and consequently, there is a flotilla of cargo ships on both sides of the canal waiting to get through to the other side.
Yes, this will increase shipping costs to the Gulf and East Coast, so put that in your budget for 2024 (if it applies).
Just in time for the holiday season shipments, of course.
We are mere weeks away from the 4th quarter. The impact of the 4th Quarter is well-known by all football fans. If your team is behind when the 4th quarter starts, there is a general feeling of panic, depending on the score. There is a sense of what needs to be done and the limited time that the team has to get it done. It’s the same with your business. Or your sales book. Unlike football, it’s very unusual for a business to win the game in the last two minutes. It requires planning and diligence and sticking to that plan for you to win the game without that Q4 sense of panic.
Two things:
Are you on track to wrap up 2023 at or better than 100% of your planned budget?
Have you started planning for 2024?
The bad news is that time flies. The good news is that you are the pilot; now go fly that plane.
